Iran’s hardline IRGC is tightening control over military and diplomacy, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and casting fresh doubt on already fragile US negotiations.
Senior Iranian military officials inspect helicopters as the IRGC tightens its grip over defence and diplomatic decision-making | Reuters via ANI
Iran’s power structure appears to have undergone a decisive shift over the weekend, with the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moving to take control of both military operations and diplomatic engagements, according to a report by The New York Post citing regional analysts.
The development comes at a critical moment for the region, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensify and already fragile backchannel efforts between Tehran and Washington show signs of collapsing.
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At the centre of this transition is IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, who, along with his close circle, is said to have assumed effective control of the Islamic Republic’s decision-making apparatus. The change in command has coincided with Tehran stepping away from planned negotiations with the United States.
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The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has indicated that the shift reflects a clear sidelining of relatively moderate voices, including Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. While Araghchi had earlier indicated willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after discussions with the Trump administration, the IRGC is reported to have blocked the move, maintaining that the waterway should remain shut in response to the US blockade of Iranian ports.
The report suggests that Vahidi’s position has been strengthened by the backing of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, an IRGC veteran who currently serves as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Their alignment is being seen as pivotal in cementing control over the strategic chokepoint.
Iran’s naval deployment in the region has also shifted, with fast attack vessels now dominating operations after conventional forces reportedly suffered heavy setbacks in recent confrontations.
Tensions escalated further over the weekend when Iran reportedly targeted at least three ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The action has left hundreds of vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf.
The IRGC’s growing influence has extended into diplomatic channels as well. Earlier this month, Zolghadr was included in Iran’s negotiation team to ensure alignment with directives from the IRGC and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
According to the ISW, this led to friction within the delegation. “Zolghadr sent a complaint to senior IRGC leaders, almost certainly including Vahidi, that Araghchi had surpassed his mandate during the negotiations by expressing flexibility regarding Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance,” the think tank observed.
The fallout was swift. “Zolghadr’s anger caused senior leaders in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief and long-time member of Mojtaba’s inner circle, Hossein Taeb, to call the negotiating delegation back to Tehran,” the ISW added.
The report further indicates that Vahidi is now functioning as the principal authority alongside Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained out of public view since being injured in recent airstrikes that also claimed the life of his predecessor.
This emerging hierarchy places the IRGC firmly above civilian leadership figures such as Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, both of whom are now seen as having limited influence despite their anti-Western positioning.
The ISW has warned that the current power dynamics significantly reduce the prospects of meaningful dialogue with the West. It noted that Araghchi and Ghalibaf lack the “leverage or formal executive authority to shape decision-making.”
The New York Post report also casts doubt on earlier claims from Washington suggesting a reformed Iranian leadership following the deaths of senior officials during the conflict.
With no clarity yet on when talks might resume, and a ceasefire deadline approaching on Tuesday, the region remains on edge as both military and diplomatic tensions continue to rise.
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